will leaving at age 64 balance the system?

Barthélémy Philippe, edited by Gauthier Delomez

While the government is due to present its pension reform on Tuesday, according to the latest trends, it should opt for a postponement of the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 by 2030. The objective of the project is to restore the financial equilibrium of the system, but this assumes that the executive’s scenario comes true.

It is this Tuesday that Elisabeth Borne must unveil the government’s final arbitration on the pension reform, before a presentation of the bill in the Council of Ministers on January 23. A priori, the option chosen is that of postponing the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 years by 2030, coupled with the acceleration of the timetable for the Touraine reform, which extends the period of contributions for a pension. at full rate at age 43 (initially scheduled for 2035).

The objective of the project is to restore the financial balance of the pension system threatened by a heavy deficit in the years to come.

The quest for a low unemployment rate

In principle, the government’s scenario should suffice since it has calibrated its reform to restore the balance of the system. The projections of the Pensions Orientation Council are counting on a deficit of around 13 to 15 billion euros in 2030, and with its reform, the State will mechanically collect more social security contributions and tax revenues. All of this will help plug the hole in the pension system.

“According to certain estimates, we should achieve savings of around 18 billion euros. This is even a little higher than the expected deficit”, explains Matthieu Plane, economist at the OFCE, who underlines that “this supposes a low unemployment rate. That means that we keep seniors in employment for a long time.

For him, “if these seniors are kept in employment, we can have budget surpluses. If this is not the case, we will then have a risk of deficit, in particular on unemployment insurance schemes. Overall, we have seesaw phenomena that can take place”, analyzes the economist. The government promises to use budget surpluses to finance social support measures, either the minimum pension of 1,200 euros or even early departures for long careers and arduous jobs.