why the rise in prices should increase from September

Baptiste Morin, edited by Juliette Moreau Alvarez

Good news that may well be short-lived. Inflation slowed slightly in August to 5.8% year on year in France, notably thanks to energy prices which increased less this month. A small victory for the government, because inflation is likely to start again from September.

Inflation slowed slightly in August: to 5.8% over one year against 6.1% in July according to INSEE figures. Good news in this time of crisis, but that may just be the calm before the storm. If the rise in prices is marking time, it is thanks to energy prices which simply increased less in August than in July, with an increase of 22.2% this month against 28.5% the last month.

An accelerated increase for food products

Nevertheless, excluding energy, there is no lull for goods and services. The rise has even accelerated for food products: their price rose 7.7% in August. Inflation should therefore worsen again from September, especially as production costs “continue to rise”, explains economist Marc Touati. “We are at +25.9% over one year. For the moment, there is no complete repercussion on consumer prices, therefore on selling prices.”

“But unfortunately, this inflation will start rising again from September. And then, I think we could reach 8 to 10% by the end of 2022”, continues the economist, while the tariff shield on gas and electricity largely protects us from fluctuations in electricity and energy until the end of the year. It is thanks to this shield that France has recorded, for the moment, the lowest inflation in the euro zone.

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